emby wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 12:26 pm
Just recapping why I'm so damned confident despite it all. Here's how I get there.
First thing we look at is the 2020 map. and we remember where it was close.
Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania with North Carolina and Florida within 5%.
Jan 6th happens, Dobbs happens.
2022 elections and Democrats win statewide campaigns in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania. Republicans win in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida.
Trump gets indicted.
2023 Democrat wins statewide race in Kentucky. Republicans win in Louisiana and Mississippi
These statewide election results are the only polls you can really trust and if we're left to only these irrefutable data points with which to read the tealeaves, there's nothing in any of the results in statewide elections since 2020 that would indicate to me some sort of momentum on the right. If anything, it's more of a stalemate at the 2020 map that's trending blue and that is of course, bad for Trump.
Let's go ahead and dispense with any notion that this race is going to be anything close to being a referendum on Biden. Trump's ego is so fucking big that he won't let it be. What's he gonna do? have a policy debate with Joe Biden? Is Donald Trump going to differentiate himself from the status quo on such hot topics as Ukarane, Gaza, Taiwan, and the Houthis?
Can Trump look the American people in the eye and say he's got the answer for inflation and win an election? Not a chance. He's too busy bitching about getting due processed.
All he's got is his brand and his grievances and that's what he's running on. It's old and stale and fractured.
How fractured?
vote percentage for Nikki Hayley:
NV: 30% Won without Trump on the ballot in a battleground state.
SC: 40% Her home state
NC: 23% <-----battleground state
GA: 13% <-----battleground state
AZ: 17% <-----battleground state
FL: 13% <-----battleground state
PA: 16% <-----battleground state
Those are vote tallies in swing state primary elections that are less than two months old. About one in five Republicans ain't happy with trump enough to send him back in there to save his own skin. So after the conviction last week when that shock poll came out that said Trump lost 30% of republicans and half of independents...It might not be that far off.
So Joe Biden is over there getting older and a little more gone. He's not as bad off as the right lets on, but he's old. This will be his last campaign and thank God for that, but that campaign has 154 days in which to spend $192 million on persuading those disenfranchised republicans to finally hang Donald Trump out to dry so we can all move on.
Gonna be a bloodbath.