Is it still too soon to call this race for Harris?

[deltbucs]

Bottom post of the previous page:

You guys really think Genocide Joe is going to beat out 'ol President Orange Face? I don't see it. All I see is Biden losing supporters.

I laid it all down here in this thread.

It's gonna be a blowout.

I'll go back and scan through it, but I disagree...bigly.

You know I wouldn't be caught dead voting for either of those pieces of shit.

We've had 4 years of Biden doing Trump shit. Same kids in cages, more oil drilling, same tax policy, not a peep about Healthcare. Of course the biggest thing that's going to hurt him is the aiding in the genocide of the Palestinians. That's going to cost him a lot of votes...especially young people.

Again, I'll go back and scan through the thread, so you don't have to repeat yourself, but that's what I'm seeing.

[emby]

You guys really think Genocide Joe is going to beat out 'ol President Orange Face? I don't see it. All I see is Biden losing supporters.

I laid it all down here in this thread.

It's gonna be a blowout.

I'll go back and scan through it, but I disagree...bigly.

You know I wouldn't be caught dead voting for either of those pieces of shit.

We've had 4 years of Biden doing Trump shit. Same kids in cages, more oil drilling, same tax policy, not a peep about Healthcare. Of course the biggest thing that's going to hurt him is the aiding in the genocide of the Palestinians. That's going to cost him a lot of votes...especially young people.

Again, I'll go back and scan through the thread, so you don't have to repeat yourself, but that's what I'm seeing.

Doing all these things and still managing to do the thing that he was elected to do.

[emby]

You guys really think Genocide Joe is going to beat out 'ol President Orange Face? I don't see it. All I see is Biden losing supporters.

I laid it all down here in this thread.

It's gonna be a blowout.

I'll go back and scan through it, but I disagree...bigly.

You know I wouldn't be caught dead voting for either of those pieces of shit.

We've had 4 years of Biden doing Trump shit. Same kids in cages, more oil drilling, same tax policy, not a peep about Healthcare. Of course the biggest thing that's going to hurt him is the aiding in the genocide of the Palestinians. That's going to cost him a lot of votes...especially young people.

Again, I'll go back and scan through the thread, so you don't have to repeat yourself, but that's what I'm seeing.

https://www.thebuczone.net/viewtopic.php?p=815#p815

[The Outsider]

You guys really think Genocide Joe is going to beat out 'ol President Orange Face? I don't see it. All I see is Biden losing supporters.

I laid it all down here in this thread.

It's gonna be a blowout.

I'll go back and scan through it, but I disagree...bigly.

You know I wouldn't be caught dead voting for either of those pieces of shit.

We've had 4 years of Biden doing Trump shit. Same kids in cages, more oil drilling, same tax policy, not a peep about Healthcare. Of course the biggest thing that's going to hurt him is the aiding in the genocide of the Palestinians. That's going to cost him a lot of votes...especially young people.

Again, I'll go back and scan through the thread, so you don't have to repeat yourself, but that's what I'm seeing.

[deltbucs]

I laid it all down here in this thread.

It's gonna be a blowout.

I'll go back and scan through it, but I disagree...bigly.

You know I wouldn't be caught dead voting for either of those pieces of shit.

We've had 4 years of Biden doing Trump shit. Same kids in cages, more oil drilling, same tax policy, not a peep about Healthcare. Of course the biggest thing that's going to hurt him is the aiding in the genocide of the Palestinians. That's going to cost him a lot of votes...especially young people.

Again, I'll go back and scan through the thread, so you don't have to repeat yourself, but that's what I'm seeing.

Doing all these things and still managing to do the thing that he was elected to do.

Ah yes, nicer tweets.

[emby]

I'll go back and scan through it, but I disagree...bigly.

You know I wouldn't be caught dead voting for either of those pieces of shit.

We've had 4 years of Biden doing Trump shit. Same kids in cages, more oil drilling, same tax policy, not a peep about Healthcare. Of course the biggest thing that's going to hurt him is the aiding in the genocide of the Palestinians. That's going to cost him a lot of votes...especially young people.

Again, I'll go back and scan through the thread, so you don't have to repeat yourself, but that's what I'm seeing.

Doing all these things and still managing to do the thing that he was elected to do.

Ah yes, nicer tweets.

Way funnier

[kaimaru]

The reduction of out of control covid spending has not reduced the deficit a trillion from 2021?

Reducing spending lowers the deficit. So does raising taxes.

You lost me.

A lot has happened to me in the last 14-15 months, not much of it good. So, I've made a real effort towards trying to be less abrasive, engage in a more honest, civil dialogue, no booze in like 450 days... like a real mid-life inventory type deal. And yes, I expect to be mercilessly flamed for admitting this.

Yet, I feel like you are prodding Banner for the Hulk to return and we all know it won't take much.

I am not giving credit to Joey (nor would I for Trump) for the end of the Covid Regime and subsequent spending. The flu ran it's course for a few years, ppl got beyond sick of the tyrannically policies and decided to leave their homes and go back to work. Biden was simply the imbecile in change when the plebs finally had enough and natural immunity reached the critical mass necessary.

Pete, I am glad you're here because it gives me someone else to talk to online. I'm also glad that you're getting healthy even though you probably still have the Nick Nolte mugshot hair.

If I want to dunk on somebody I don't respect for a bad political take, It's a dumb fuck's life(c) is a mere click away.

I'm just telling you the way I see things, Offering up the liberal tripe I actually read and watch, and generally fuck around until the season gets going and we have more shit to talk about.


I haven't quit drinking yet, but....



Willie let him play Trigger. That's huge.

And that is your problem (the liberal tripe you read and hear). I knew that Trump was beating Hillary. I knew it based upon history (any Republican that was not in first place in the polls prior to November the year before elections, but moved to top in the polls after has never lost the presidential election. Look it up) and the fact that I knew people who lied about voting for Hillary to my group of friends but told me in private they were voting for Trump. All my very liberal friends all thought as the media did that Hillary was a slam dunk. We know what happened. I teased my liberal friends that Trump would beat Hillary. They were so in distress they wouldn't reply to my texts for an entire day. I haven't teased them this time because they may stop being my friend, but there is certainly the likelihood he beats Biden.

I agree with Pete, Biden either looks old and out of it or loud and angry when they juice him up and it's clear he is juiced up

[deltbucs]

Doing all these things and still managing to do the thing that he was elected to do.

Ah yes, nicer tweets.

Way funnier

Meh...I think Trump's were funnier, both intentionally and unintentionally.

[deltbucs]

Just recapping why I'm so damned confident despite it all. Here's how I get there.

First thing we look at is the 2020 map. and we remember where it was close.



Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania with North Carolina and Florida within 5%.

Jan 6th happens, Dobbs happens.

2022 elections and Democrats win statewide campaigns in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania. Republicans win in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida.

Trump gets indicted.

2023 Democrat wins statewide race in Kentucky. Republicans win in Louisiana and Mississippi

These statewide election results are the only polls you can really trust and if we're left to only these irrefutable data points with which to read the tealeaves, there's nothing in any of the results in statewide elections since 2020 that would indicate to me some sort of momentum on the right. If anything, it's more of a stalemate at the 2020 map that's trending blue and that is of course, bad for Trump.


Let's go ahead and dispense with any notion that this race is going to be anything close to being a referendum on Biden. Trump's ego is so fucking big that he won't let it be. What's he gonna do? have a policy debate with Joe Biden? Is Donald Trump going to differentiate himself from the status quo on such hot topics as Ukarane, Gaza, Taiwan, and the Houthis?

Can Trump look the American people in the eye and say he's got the answer for inflation and win an election? Not a chance. He's too busy bitching about getting due processed.

All he's got is his brand and his grievances and that's what he's running on. It's old and stale and fractured.

How fractured?

vote percentage for Nikki Hayley:


NV: 30% Won without Trump on the ballot in a battleground state.
SC: 40% Her home state
NC: 23% <-----battleground state
GA: 13% <-----battleground state
AZ: 17% <-----battleground state
FL: 13% <-----battleground state
PA: 16% <-----battleground state

Those are vote tallies in swing state primary elections that are less than two months old. About one in five Republicans ain't happy with trump enough to send him back in there to save his own skin. So after the conviction last week when that shock poll came out that said Trump lost 30% of republicans and half of independents...It might not be that far off.





So Joe Biden is over there getting older and a little more gone. He's not as bad off as the right lets on, but he's old. This will be his last campaign and thank God for that, but that campaign has 154 days in which to spend $192 million on persuading those disenfranchised republicans to finally hang Donald Trump out to dry so we can all move on.


Gonna be a bloodbath.

I appreciate you putting this out there, but I still disagree. Personally, I've voted democrats in state and local elections and haven't voted for one for president since Obama's first term. A lot of the young voung voters will vote dem for almost everything, but they aren't voting for Genocide Joe.

Trump voters aren't going to be turned away by him getting convicted for the exact same thing that Hillary and the dems got busted for and just had to pay a fine. This is the type of shit that's turning more people to actually vote for him.

We'll have to agree to disagree for now.

[emby]

Just recapping why I'm so damned confident despite it all. Here's how I get there.

First thing we look at is the 2020 map. and we remember where it was close.



Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania with North Carolina and Florida within 5%.

Jan 6th happens, Dobbs happens.

2022 elections and Democrats win statewide campaigns in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania. Republicans win in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida.

Trump gets indicted.

2023 Democrat wins statewide race in Kentucky. Republicans win in Louisiana and Mississippi

These statewide election results are the only polls you can really trust and if we're left to only these irrefutable data points with which to read the tealeaves, there's nothing in any of the results in statewide elections since 2020 that would indicate to me some sort of momentum on the right. If anything, it's more of a stalemate at the 2020 map that's trending blue and that is of course, bad for Trump.


Let's go ahead and dispense with any notion that this race is going to be anything close to being a referendum on Biden. Trump's ego is so fucking big that he won't let it be. What's he gonna do? have a policy debate with Joe Biden? Is Donald Trump going to differentiate himself from the status quo on such hot topics as Ukarane, Gaza, Taiwan, and the Houthis?

Can Trump look the American people in the eye and say he's got the answer for inflation and win an election? Not a chance. He's too busy bitching about getting due processed.

All he's got is his brand and his grievances and that's what he's running on. It's old and stale and fractured.

How fractured?

vote percentage for Nikki Hayley:


NV: 30% Won without Trump on the ballot in a battleground state.
SC: 40% Her home state
NC: 23% <-----battleground state
GA: 13% <-----battleground state
AZ: 17% <-----battleground state
FL: 13% <-----battleground state
PA: 16% <-----battleground state

Those are vote tallies in swing state primary elections that are less than two months old. About one in five Republicans ain't happy with trump enough to send him back in there to save his own skin. So after the conviction last week when that shock poll came out that said Trump lost 30% of republicans and half of independents...It might not be that far off.





So Joe Biden is over there getting older and a little more gone. He's not as bad off as the right lets on, but he's old. This will be his last campaign and thank God for that, but that campaign has 154 days in which to spend $192 million on persuading those disenfranchised republicans to finally hang Donald Trump out to dry so we can all move on.


Gonna be a bloodbath.

I appreciate you putting this out there, but I still disagree. Personally, I've voted democrats in state and local elections and haven't voted for one for president since Obama's first term. A lot of the young voung voters will vote dem for almost everything, but they aren't voting for Genocide Joe.

Trump voters aren't going to be turned away by him getting convicted for the exact same thing that Hillary and the dems got busted for and just had to pay a fine. This is the type of shit that's turning more people to actually vote for him.

We'll have to agree to disagree for now.

That's cool. We can let this theory cook a bit but basically I have the vote tallies all swinging from 2020 to 2024 by about 10-12 points. Mostly because of Dobbs and Jan 6th.

[PetePierson]

I can't get over the Left screaming that this election will determine if "Democracy Survives" but this is the party that wants to mandate:

What I drive
How I cook
How to power my home
Allowing 9-10 MM illegal aliens in this country at a cost of like ~$66 billion because "we need workers". I'll make my own fucking sandwich & do my own landscaping

Beats their chest about the Inflation Reduction Act which is simply GND when combined with infrastructure bill.

They have been working on I-485 in Charlotte since late 2019. Was supposed to be done in 2022. Just read that completion date has been pushed back yet again to 2025. And that was with at least 2 solid years of ppl driving much much less during the Covid Regime.

How about those 500k EV charging stations promised in one of those bills. They have built fucking 7.... FUCKING 7.

The billions to Ukraine? Why? Not my fucking problem. Same with Isreal and Gaza. Fucking animals have been killing one another since the dawn of man. Let them.

87K more IRS Agents? Wtf? Sorry kids, we don't need more government. We need less, a lot less.

Great diatribe, I know. Especially since the GOP will just grow the government under different bullshit programs.

If RFK Jr would move off 2A or his climate stance, he'd 100% have my vote. Shit, may get it regardless.