Is it still too soon to call this race for Harris?

[The Outsider]

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Donald Trump: Losing since 6/15/1946

[The Outsider]

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-beat ... 24-1911231

President Joe Biden is the favorite to defeat Donald Trump in the 2024 election, according to a forecast model.

Polling and forecasting website 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, said that when run through a prediction simulation, Biden won November's race 53 times out of 100, with Trump coming out on top 47 times out of 100.

The simulation forecast explores likely election outcomes based on several factors, including adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, and demographic data.
The Context

With less than five months to go until the 2024 election, Biden and Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, appear to be neck and neck in the rematch of the previous presidential race.

Biden, 81, is heading into November's election amid historically low approval ratings and ongoing concerns about his age.
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Trump is also hoping to win a second term in office after becoming the first U.S. president in history to be convicted of a crime when a New York jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts during his hush money trial last month.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden (L) in Wilmington, Delaware, and Donald Trump at the White House on November 4, 2020. Biden is currently the favorite to win the 2024 election, according to 538. ANGELA WEISSMANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images
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What We Know
Read more Joe Biden

Joe Biden Leads Donald Trump Among America's Top Pollsters
Joe Biden Leads Donald Trump by 25 Points Among Younger People
Donald Trump Suffers Quadruple Polling Blow
George Conway Shares How to Get Under Donald Trump's Skin

538 published their official forecast for the 2024 election on June 11, showing that Biden is currently just ahead in the close race.

The model predicts that Biden has a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election, slightly more than half the model's simulations of how the election could unfold. Trump is not far behind with a 47-in-100 chance, suggesting the election could still go either way between now and November.

"The range of realistic Electoral College outcomes generated by our forecasting model stretches from 132 to 445 electoral votes for Biden—a testament to how much things could change by November (and how off the polls could be)," G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for 538, wrote while sharing details of the forecast.

The forecast notes that Trump is currently just ahead of Biden in the polls, including in the key swing states which could ultimately decide who wins the 2024 election.

Additional "fundamentals," such as changes in economic conditions and other political indicators, may favor Biden.

"To forecast the election, we rely primarily on polls asking voters whom they support," Morris added.

"However, our forecast also incorporates various economic and political indicators that aren't related to polling but can be used to make rough predictions for the election."

History also suggests that incumbent presidents do better when they run for reelection.

Predictions for the economy based on polls can also be skewed when political polarization is high, as it arguably currently is.
Views

Historian and writer Varad Mehta wrote on X, formerly Twitter: "For the opposite view of the state of the presidential race, DDHQ has Trump as the slight favorite. The difference? 538 has Biden winning all three blue wall states, and DDHQ has Trump winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Which is what the polls show right now."

Lawyer James Debate wrote, "Biden narrowly favoured to win Presidential election according to 538's new forecast. I've been dunking a lot on 538 this cycle, but this is a surprisingly solid forecast and seems about right for the current polling."

In a second post, he said, "One thing I will say, though, is that they are probably over-estimating Kennedy's vote share. Polls historically tend to overrate third party candidates. 538 currently has him around 8%, but I would not be surprised if he ends up with half of that."
What Next

538 said it will rerun its forecast simulator every day between now and November's election and will update it depending on the latest data.

[emby]

Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by 22k votes and didn't even win the Wisconsin primary that year. All 22k of those people died of Covid. j/k


In 2018 Wisconsin booted Scott Walker for Tony Evers by a margin of 29k votes.

In 2022 they reelected that governor by a margin of 90k votes.

Trump ain't winning Wisconsin. And two other states they are leaning on had statewide gubernatorial elections in 2022 as well. Those being Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Joe Biden has to literally drop dead for Trump to win this thing and Joe's not going out before Jimmy Carter. He may be old and diminished, but he's still on a peloton every morning like he's fuckin Jack Lelaine.

[emby]

There's a mental image for you. Joe Biden fucking Jack Lelaine.

[The Outsider]

Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by 22k votes and didn't even win the Wisconsin primary that year. All 22k of those people died of Covid. j/k


In 2018 Wisconsin booted Scott Walker for Tony Evers by a margin of 29k votes.

In 2022 they reelected that governor by a margin of 90k votes.

Trump ain't winning Wisconsin. And two other states they are leaning on had statewide gubernatorial elections in 2022 as well. Those being Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Joe Biden has to literally drop dead for Trump to win this thing and Joe's not going out before Jimmy Carter. He may be old and diminished, but he's still on a peloton every morning like he's fuckin Jack Lelaine.

Yeah especially Michigan. That state has gone hard blue over the last 8 years.

[emby]

Now he's shit talking Milwaukee as a "horrible city" before the convention.

Can't wait to hear Scott Baio back him up on that.

[PetePierson]

I just can't with polling, models, predictions, etc... Sure, some are interesting to read as well as watch Team R / Team D pound their chest when they find a favorable one.

No argument that the GOP f'd up with Roe (although I don't see a problem with it going back to the states) but I am not certain that is going to be enough to carry the day over the economy, immigration and Joey's extreme mental decline.

Not like Trump is the picture of youth or fitness but Joey looks and sounds bad, always. When he is pumped with whatever cocktail they give to prop him up for big speeches like SOTU, he's fucking mean and yelling. Good luck selling the good compassionate ole timer schtick. Dude is definitely as mean as Trump.

Then again, the Left is soooo much better with younger voters (even if down this cycle), social media presence, embracing mail-in balloting (which I also hate) etc....

TL:DR - It is going to be close and I haven't got a clue who ends up winning.

[The Outsider]

I just can't with polling, models, predictions, etc... Sure, some are interesting to read as well as watch Team R / Team D pound their chest when they find a favorable one.

No argument that the GOP f'd up with Roe (although I don't see a problem with it going back to the states) but I am not certain that is going to be enough to carry the day over the economy, immigration and Joey's extreme mental decline.

Not like Trump is the picture of youth or fitness but Joey looks and sounds bad, always. When he is pumped with whatever cocktail they give to prop him up for big speeches like SOTU, he's fucking mean and yelling. Good luck selling the good compassionate ole timer schtick. Dude is definitely as mean as Trump.

Then again, the Left is soooo much better with younger voters (even if down this cycle), social media presence, embracing mail-in balloting (which I also hate) etc....

TL:DR - It is going to be close and I haven't got a clue who ends up winning.

My only problem with that is the removal of already existing rights. Granted it should have been codified, but it really shows how fucking stupid on religion we are as a country that even medically necessary abortion is seen as reprehensible by a large portion of the population.

[emby]

Republicans are too extreme with Trump.

It was one thing back in 2016 to take a chance on a famous billionaire to shake up the Washington establishment, but what trump has done since winning that election is political and economic destabilization.

People hate what Dusty Rhodes referred to as "hard times, daddy". And that is why both men get low marks from voters. But on the issue of political and economic stabilization, Biden is the clear answer. Trump represents chaos, and I think the american people have had enough chaos over the last 40 years.

2028 campaign will start right after the inauguration about three weeks before we win another Lombardi. That's going to be one hell of a campaign.

[PetePierson]

My only problem with that is the removal of already existing rights. Granted it should have been codified, but it really shows how fucking stupid on religion we are as a country that even medically necessary abortion is seen as reprehensible by a large portion of the population.

100% agreed, especially when it comes to the health of the mother. Also, do have an issue with removing established rights.

Clearly, this is an emotional & decisive issue in this country, possibly the most decisive. But as a man without a daughter, I don't pay a lot of attn to it. I should have framed the comment that I'm pro Federalism / State's rights.

[PetePierson]

Republicans are too extreme with Trump.

It was one thing back in 2016 to take a chance on a famous billionaire to shake up the Washington establishment, but what trump has done since winning that election is political and economic destabilization.

People hate what Dusty Rhodes referred to as "hard times, daddy". And that is why both men get low marks from voters. But on the issue of political and economic stabilization, Biden is the clear answer. Trump represents chaos, and I think the american people have had enough chaos over the last 40 years.

2028 campaign will start right after the inauguration about three weeks before we win another Lombardi. That's going to be one hell of a campaign.

I'm not certain continuing to smash the Ctrl+P button to print money out of thin air does not exactly scream; strong and stable economy. Not to mention the insane amount of ESG regulations he's pushing.

The bigger question; is this the worst ticket in the history of this country? I feel it is definitely worse than Hilldog / Trump.